Home Selection - Sept 2010

[AlistairH]

Following on from the initial Home Selection Trial, I've decided to continue with the exercise but split it up into monthly chunks.

The selection is based on stats and analysis available at SoccerLotto and was originally intended to identify sound home selections. However, what the initial trial did, albeit spread over a rather thin on the ground bunch of games during the summer, was find team playing at home that tended to be pretty short in price and consequently rather poor value.

Indeed, over the 20 games selected since the 24th April, backing those selections would have seen a 4.21 point loss. Not surprisingly therefore, laying them saw a profit, but the best result came with backing the draw. A profit of 9.29 points to be precise.

With the domestic season in full swing, I want to continue monitoring this, but with an open mind in that, despite the name of the thread, I fully expect the value to be in either laying the picks, or backing the draw.

For the purposes of this exercise, the odds I specify are those available at the time of posting the picks.


Update 28/9/10: As there are no more selections for this month, here's a graphical summary of results. I'll post it here to save you scrolling through the whole thread.



Clearly, opposing the picks is the way to go if this graph is anything to go by. However, given that the season is still relatively young and form may still be settling down, I'll continue to monitor the selections but do so in another monthly thread.

[AlistairH]

Of course, it would be a funny weekend that this kicks off thanks to this evening's internationals.

Only two picks to kick us off and they are both from the Blue Square Northern League...

ALFRETON v VAUXHALL M 1.33 5.50 7.50 ... 2-0 Home win
GUISELEY v REDDITCH 1.60 4.00 5.50 ... 3-1 Home win

Please note that in this instance, the odds were taken from Oddschecker.com as the liquidity on Betfar was so lacking causing huge gaps in the markets.

Running P&L: +0.88 pts

[AlistairH]

Next installment and a bit more to choose from... Actually, there were a number of picks from the European leagues but they've just started their season so I'll let them settle down a bit.


11/09/10 CARDIFF v HULL 1.63 4.10 6.40 ... 2 - 0 Home win
11/09/10 ANNAN ATH v ELGIN 1.56 4.50 6.00 ... 0 - 1 Away win
11/09/10 STRANRAER v QUEEN'S PK 2.10 3.80 3.65 ... 1 - 0 Home win
11/09/10 BROMLEY v ST ALBANS 1.54 4.40 5.90 ... 1 - 1 Draw

A mixed bag resulting in a slight loss and a running total of 0.53pts,

[AlistairH]

Just the one pick for today:

12/09/10 ROSENBORG v VIKING 1.46 5.20 7.60 ... 1 - 1 Draw

Running Total: -4.73 pts

[AlistairH]

Off to Scandinavia once again for the latest installment...

13/09/10 IFK GOTHEN v GAIS 1.69 3.90 6.20 ... 2 - 1 Home win

Running total: -0.18 pts

[AlistairH]

I normally don't do cup matches, but while the stats are there, I might as well use them.

14/09/10 MAN. UTD. v RANGERS 1.20 7.80 22.00 ... 0 - 0 Draw

Running total: -0.82 pts

[AlistairH]

A reasonable batch for Saturday with the first two in the list coming from Finland, then back to good old Blighty for the rest. In no particular order...


18/09/10 OULU v FC LAHTI 2.26 3.60 3.40 ... 1 - 2 Away win
18/09/10 TPS TURKU TAMPERE U 1.87 3.80 4.70 ... 4 - 3 Home win
18/09/10 BARNSLEY v DERBY 2.32 3.45 3.45 ... 1 - 1 Draw
18/09/10 BURY v HEREFORD 1.90 3.65 4.90 ... 1 - 1 Draw
18/09/10 FALKIRK v MORTON 1.58 4.40 6.60 ... 2 -1 Home win
18/09/10 ALLOA v DUMBARTON 1.60 4.50 5.90 ... 0 - 0 Draw
18/09/10 CRAWLEY v GATESHEAD 1.40 5.30 9.00 ... 2 - 1 Home win

Note that, at the time of writing, I couldn't find a price for Droylsden on Betfair so the figures are taken from Oddschecker.

Update 18/9/10: DROYLSDEN v ILKESTON was removed from the list as I discovered this evening that Ilkeston went into liquidation earlier this week and it appears the match didn't take place - which would explain why I couldn't find the market on Betfair.

Running total: -3.06 pts.

With three draws today, this selection process is maintaining the observation that I've made previously in that the home win is generally not of value and backing the draw would be more profitable. So far this month, backing the draw would've seen a 11.85 pt profit.

[AlistairH]

Time to start introducing some European picks now that they've had a few games...

21/09/10 FSV MAINZ v FC KOLN 1.97 3.70 4.40 ... 2 - 0 Home win
21/09/10 HOFFENHEIM v B. MUNICH 3.85 3.75 2.08 ... 1 - 2 Away win
21/09/10 TAMWORTH v BATH 1.67 4.10 5.80 ... 2 - 2 Draw

Update 21/09/10: Almost two draws out of 3 tonight if not for an injury time winner by Bayern Munich. With only one home win, the 'home selection' moves further into the red for the month, while the draw moves further into profit. From now, I think I'll start publicly recording the draw profit as well.

Home monthly P&L: -4.14pts
Draw monthly P&L: +12.8pts

Interesting to note that so far this month, there has been 19 selections with 7 of them being draws (with an average price of 4.73) giving a 67.37% ROI.

[AlistairH]

A few matches from the continent today. The odds for the home results look like being a bit more value, though given the teams involved, it is perhaps not surprising that they are not short priced.


22/09/10 ALMERIA v LEVANTE UD 1.81 3.95 5.10 ... 0 - 1 Away win
22/09/10 BOLOGNA v UDINESE 2.66 3.20 3.10 ... 2 - 1 Home win
22/09/10 BRESCIA v ROMA 3.35 3.30 2.48 ... 2 - 1 Home win
22/09/10 FREIBURG v SCHALKE 3.25 3.45 2.46 ... 1 - 2 Away win

Update:

Home Monthly P&L: -2.33 pts
Draw Monthly P&L: +8.80 pts

[AlistairH]

Just the one selection for tonight...

23/09/10 JUVENTUS v PALERMO 1.76 3.85 5.70 ... 1 - 3 Away win

Update:

Home monthly P&L: -3.33 pts
Draw monthly P&L: +7.80 pts

[AlistairH]

Sticking to the UK for today's picks...

25/09/10 ARSENAL v WBA 1.28 6.20 14.50 ... 2 - 3 Away win
25/09/10 COVENTRY v PRESTON 2.08 3.45 4.20 ... 1 - 2 Away win
25/09/10 BRIGHTON v OLDHAM 1.84 3.95 4.70 ... 2 - 1 Home win
25/09/10 ROCHDALE v PLYMOUTH 2.42 3.45 3.25 ... 1 - 1 Draw
25/09/10 SHEFF. WED v SOUTHAMPTN 2.58 3.45 3.00 ... 0 - 1 Away win
25/09/10 CELTIC v HIBERNIAN 1.29 6.00 14.00 ... 2 - 1 Home win
25/09/10 LIVINGSTON v EAST FIFE 1.55 5.00 6.00 ... 1 - 1 Draw
25/09/10 FLEETWOOD v BATH 1.55 4.60 7.20 ... 2 - 1 Home win
25/09/10 WREXHAM v HISTON 1.46 4.80 9.00 ... 4 - 0 Home win

 Update 25/9/10: Another poor day for the homes with a further 2.97 points lost. A couple of draws in there but not enough to boost the return to it's heights of last week.

Home monthly P&L: -6.30 pts
Draw monthly P&L: +6.92 pts

[AlistairH]

Off to the continent for Sunday's action...

26/09/10 ODD GRENLA v SANDEFJORD 1.35 5.70 10.50 ... 5 - 0 Home win
26/09/10 ATH MADRID v ZARAGOZA 1.56 4.40 7.00 ... 1 - 0 Home win
26/09/10 SAMPDORIA v UDINESE 2.02 3.40 4.60 ... 0 - 0 Draw

Home monthly P&L: -6.43 pts
Draw monthly P&L: +7.20 pts

[AlistairH]

Here's the latest batch...


28/09/10 QPR v MILLWALL 1.72 3.95 6.00 ... 0 - 0 Draw
28/09/10 SWINDON v PLYMOUTH 2.02 3.50 4.30 ... 2 - 3 Away win
28/09/10 NEWPORT v FOREST G. 1.50 4.60 8.20 ... 3 - 1 Home win

Home monthly P&L: -7.96 pts
Draw monthly P&L: +8.01 pts